Happy New Year (?)

I actually could do with an old year as long as it is good!

We are growing warily to the arrival of a new year lately. Too many treacherous events have taken place since 2020.

The weather is bleak, which does not help us to look positively to the days ahead.

The war in Ukraine Iwas the worst episode of 2022 and did destroy the EU’s long-lasting peace and all the dreams.

I think that made us lose our certainties, all those beliefs we hold on Jan first every year, that the new year will be better.

Now we are careful, we do not know what’s next. Will it be better or—God forbid—worst! 😱

Journalists and commentators like to make predictions about the future. Some prefer the language of words. Others forecasters prefer numbers.

I am a forecaster with the GJO (Good Judgment, a forecasting firm), a team of superforecasters, who work together to provide detailed, specific forecasts, and these are their predictions for events in 2023.

So here we go:

How much will the global GDP growth in 2023 compared to 2022: 62%

China growth to GDP in 2023: 58% between 3.5% and 5%

A clash between Taiwan and China: 17% yes

Will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukraine before October 2023?: 5% yes

Will Putin still Bd the president of Russia before October 2023? 90% yes

When will Russia and Ukraine sign an agreement to end the conflict: 55% not before October 2023

That said, happy new year on a bleak day in Italy.

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I lived the most part of my life in Washington DC, now in Italy getting to know again my country. Plenty of surprises, for good and bad, and lots of nostalgia for DC.

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